Casa Pia x Estrela Betting tips for February 9 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Casa Pia x Estrela, Sunday, 9/2/2025

📅 9/2/2025 20:30

Casa Pia 1.83

X 3.38

Estrela 4.43

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Casa Pia x Estrela:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Casa Pia x Estrela

Important information for your tip for Casa Pia x Estrela: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Casa Pia in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $530.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Estrela in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Casa Pia scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Estrela matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Casa Pia conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Casa Pia x Estrela for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 9 of February

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Casa Pia and Estrela.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1259761 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Casa Pia x Estrela

Is betting on Casa Pia worth it?

🔵 Casa Pia: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 52.76%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.83. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 530 times – this would give you a profit of $439.90
• And would have lost other 470 times – with a loss of -$470.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$30.10.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 29.6%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.38. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $714.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$14.00.

Is betting on Estrela worth it?

🔴 Estrela: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 17.64% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.43. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 180 times – profiting $617.40;
• And would lose other 820 times – having a loss of -$820.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$202.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Casa Pia x Estrela

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Casa Pia
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Casa Pia x Estrela

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Casa Pia and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Casa Pia.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Casa Pia.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Casa Pia x Estrela

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.