Barcelona x PSG Betting tips for April 16 in UEFA Champions League

Our betting tip for Barcelona x PSG, Tuesday, 16/4/2024

📅 16/4/2024
19:00

Barcelona
2.15

X
3.70

PSG

2.97

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Barcelona x PSG:

🔮 Barcelona wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Barcelona, you can win up to $1075.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com

Important information for your tip for Barcelona x PSG:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Barcelona in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $93.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on PSG in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $297.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Barcelona scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, PSG scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against PSG, Barcelona scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Barcelona is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 In the last 6 road matches, PSG has not lost any of them.

Summary

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Analysis from Barcelona x PSG for the UEFA Champions League – 16 of April

🏟️ Barcelona X PSG – UEFA Champions League
📅 16 of April, 2024 – 19:00
🔵 Barcelona – Winning probability: 55.10% | Fair line: 1.81
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 10.03% | Fair line: 9.97
🔴 PSG – Winning probability: 34.87% | Fair line: 2.87
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Barcelona
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Barcelona and PSG.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1099347 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Barcelona x PSG

Should you bet on Barcelona?

🔵 Barcelona: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 55.1% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.15. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would hit 550 times – profiting $632.50;
And would lose other 450 times – losing -$450.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$182.50.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 10.03% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would hit 100 times – this would give you a profit of $270.00
And would lose other 900 times – having a loss of -$900.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$630.00.

Is betting on PSG worth it?

🔴 PSG: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 34.87% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.97. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would hit 350 times – profiting $689.50;
And would have lost other 650 times – with a loss of -$650.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$39.50 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Barcelona x PSG

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Barcelona
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Barcelona x PSG

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 Barcelona, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Barcelona.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 PSG.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Barcelona x PSG

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.