Borussia Dortmund x PSV Betting tips for March 13 in UEFA Champions League

Our betting tip for Borussia Dortmund x PSV, Wednesday, 13/3/2024

📅 13/3/2024
20:00

Borussia Dortmund
2.11

X
3.66

PSV

3.08

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Borussia Dortmund x PSV:

🔮 Borussia Dortmund wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Borussia Dortmund, you can win up to $1055.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Borussia Dortmund x PSV:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Dortmund in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-219.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on PSV in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-127.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Borussia Dortmund scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, PSV scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 Borussia Dortmund matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Borussia Dortmund is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 4 home matches, it had at least 64.00% of possession.
👉 In the last 4 road matches, PSV has not lost any of them.

Summary

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Analysis from Borussia Dortmund x PSV for the UEFA Champions League – 13 of March

🏟️ Borussia Dortmund X PSV – UEFA Champions League
📅 13 of March, 2024 – 20:00
🔵 Borussia Dortmund – Winning probability: 59.38% | Fair line: 1.68
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 13.45% | Fair line: 7.44
🔴 PSV – Winning probability: 27.17% | Fair line: 3.68
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Borussia Dortmund
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Borussia Dortmund x PSV right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1076130 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Borussia Dortmund x PSV

Should you bet on Borussia Dortmund?

🔵 Borussia Dortmund: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 59.38%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.11. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would have hit 590 times – having a profit of $654.90;
And would lose other 410 times – having a loss of -$410.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$244.90.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 13.45%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.66. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $345.80
And would lose other 870 times – having a loss of -$870.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$524.20.

Is betting on PSV worth it?

🔴 PSV: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 27.17%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.08. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $561.60;
And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$168.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Borussia Dortmund x PSV

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Borussia Dortmund
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Borussia Dortmund x PSV

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Borussia Dortmund and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Borussia Dortmund. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Borussia Dortmund x PSV

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.