Leeds x Burnley Betting tips for May 1 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Leeds x Burnley, Friday, 1/5/2026

📅 1/5/2026 19:00

Leeds 1.44

X 4.40

Burnley 6.82

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Leeds x Burnley:

🔮 Burnley wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Burnley, you can win up to $3410.00!

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Important information for your tip for Leeds x Burnley:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Leeds in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-193.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Burnley in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $150.0.
👉 Leeds did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Burnley conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Burnley as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Leeds x Burnley?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Leeds x Burnley, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Leeds x Burnley for the England Premier League – 1 of May

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Leeds x Burnley

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Leeds x Burnley.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Leeds x Burnley

When the best bet on Leeds x Burnley is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1535712 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it a good idea to bet on Leeds?

🔵 Leeds: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 66.86%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.44. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 670 times – profiting $294.80;
• And would lose other 330 times – having a loss of -$330.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$35.20.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 17.44% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 170 times – this would give you a profit of $578.00
• And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$252.00.

Is it worth betting on Burnley?

🔴 Burnley: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 15.69%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 6.82. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 160 times – profiting $931.20;
• And would have lost other 840 times – with a loss of -$840.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$91.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Leeds x Burnley

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Leeds
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Leeds x Burnley

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.5 Leeds and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.25 Leeds.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.25 Leeds.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Leeds x Burnley

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Leeds x Burnley