Roma x Fiorentina Betting tips for May 4 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Roma x Fiorentina, Monday, 4/5/2026

📅 4/5/2026 18:45

Roma 1.73

X 3.77

Fiorentina 4.46

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Roma x Fiorentina:

🔮 Fiorentina wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fiorentina, you can win up to $2230.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Roma x Fiorentina:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-223.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Fiorentina in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $180.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Fiorentina, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Roma x Fiorentina, with Roma as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 Roma has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Fiorentina playing at home.

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Analysis from Roma x Fiorentina for the Italy Serie A – 4 of May

Odds and handicap movements for Roma x Fiorentina

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Roma x Fiorentina.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Roma x Fiorentina

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Roma x Fiorentina right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1537252 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Should you bet on Roma?

🔵 Roma: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 55.47% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.73. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 550 times – this would give you a profit of $401.50
• And would have lost other 450 times – with a loss of -$450.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$48.50.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 20.59% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.77. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 210 times – profiting $581.70;
• And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$208.30.

Should you bet on Fiorentina?

🔴 Fiorentina: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.94% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.46. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 240 times – having a profit of $830.40;
• And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$70.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Roma x Fiorentina

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Roma
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Roma x Fiorentina

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Roma and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Roma.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Fiorentina.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Roma x Fiorentina

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Roma x Fiorentina