Roma x Fiorentina Betting tips for May 4 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Roma x Fiorentina, Monday, 4/5/2026

📅 4/5/2026 18:45

Roma 1.74

X 3.75

Fiorentina 4.42

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Roma x Fiorentina:

🔮 Fiorentina wins the match
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The main points for the tip for Roma x Fiorentina:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-223.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Fiorentina in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $180.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Fiorentina, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Roma x Fiorentina, with Roma as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 Roma has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Fiorentina playing at home.

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Analysis from Roma x Fiorentina for the Italy Serie A – 4 of May

Odds and handicap movements for Roma x Fiorentina

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Roma x Fiorentina.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Roma x Fiorentina

When the best bet on Roma x Fiorentina is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1535712 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Should you bet on Roma?

🔵 Roma: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 54.1%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.74. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 540 times – this would give you a profit of $399.60
• And would lose other 460 times – having a loss of -$460.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$60.40.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 23.19% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 230 times – profiting $632.50;
• And would have lost other 770 times – with a loss of -$770.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$137.50.

Should you bet on Fiorentina?

🔴 Fiorentina: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.71% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.42. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 230 times – this would give you a profit of $786.60
• And would lose other 770 times – losing -$770.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$16.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Roma x Fiorentina

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Roma
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Roma x Fiorentina

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Roma and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Roma.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Fiorentina.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Roma x Fiorentina

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Roma x Fiorentina