Udinese x AC Milan Betting tips for April 11 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Udinese x AC Milan, Friday, 11/4/2025

📅 11/4/2025
18:45

Udinese
3.40

X
3.50

AC Milan

2.04

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Udinese x AC Milan:

🔮 Udinese wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Udinese, you can win up to $1700.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Udinese x AC Milan:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Udinese in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $45.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on AC Milan in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-315.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, AC Milan scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against AC Milan, Udinese scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 AC Milan matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, AC Milan conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Udinese conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against AC Milan.

Summary

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Analysis from Udinese x AC Milan for the Italy Serie A – 11 of April

🏟️ Udinese X AC Milan – Italy Serie A
📅 11 of April, 2025 – 18:45
🔵 Udinese – Winning probability: 37.18% | Fair line: 2.69
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 20.95% | Fair line: 4.77
🔴 AC Milan – Winning probability: 41.87% | Fair line: 2.39
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Udinese
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Udinese x AC Milan right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1300704 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Udinese x AC Milan

Is it worth betting on Udinese?

🔵 Udinese: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 37.18% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would have hit 370 times – having a profit of $888.00;
And would lose other 630 times – losing -$630.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$258.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 20.95% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would have hit 210 times – having a profit of $525.00;
And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$265.00.

Is it worth betting on AC Milan?

🔴 AC Milan: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 41.87%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.04. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would hit 420 times – profiting $436.80;
And would lose other 580 times – having a loss of -$580.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$143.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Udinese x AC Milan

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Udinese
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Udinese x AC Milan

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Udinese and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Udinese.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Udinese.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Udinese x AC Milan

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.