Genoa x Lecce Betting tips for March 14 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Genoa x Lecce, Friday, 14/3/2025

📅 14/3/2025 19:45

Genoa 2.00

X 3.10

Lecce 4.20

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Genoa x Lecce:

🔮 Lecce wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Lecce, you can win up to $2100.00!

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Important information for your tip for Genoa x Lecce: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $110.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Lecce in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $325.0. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Genoa scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Lecce, Genoa scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Genoa matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Genoa x Lecce, with Genoa as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 Genoa has won all the last 4 matches playing at home against Lecce.

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Analysis from Genoa x Lecce for the Italy Serie A – 14 of March

When the best bet on Genoa x Lecce is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1281036 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Genoa x Lecce

Is it worth betting on Genoa?

🔵 Genoa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 41.69% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 420 times – having a profit of $420.00;
• And would lose other 580 times – losing -$580.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$160.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.09%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $630.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$70.00.

Is it worth betting on Lecce?

🔴 Lecce: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.23%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $896.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$176.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Genoa x Lecce

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Genoa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Genoa x Lecce

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Genoa and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Genoa.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Lecce.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Genoa x Lecce

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.