Atalanta x Empoli Betting tips for April 28 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Atalanta x Empoli, Sunday, 28/4/2024

📅 28/4/2024 16:00

Atalanta 1.43

X 4.53

Empoli 7.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Atalanta x Empoli:

🔮 Atalanta wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Atalanta, you can win up to $715.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Atalanta x Empoli: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-134.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Empoli in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $150.0. 👉 Empoli did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 3 Empoli matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Atalanta conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Empoli conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 It is not a good time for Empoli as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Atalanta x Empoli for the Italy Serie A – 28 of April

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Atalanta x Empoli right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1106360 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Atalanta x Empoli

Is it a good idea to bet on Atalanta?

🔵 Atalanta: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 79.32% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.43. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 790 times – having a profit of $339.70;
• And would have lost other 210 times – with a loss of -$210.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$129.70.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 14.88% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.53. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 150 times – this would give you a profit of $529.50
• And would lose other 850 times – losing -$850.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$320.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on Empoli?

🔴 Empoli: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 5.8% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 7.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 60 times – having a profit of $360.00;
• And would lose other 940 times – having a loss of -$940.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$580.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atalanta x Empoli

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Atalanta
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atalanta x Empoli

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 Atalanta and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.25 Atalanta.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Empoli.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atalanta x Empoli

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.