Genoa x Parma Betting tips for January 12 in Italy Serie A
| 📅 12/1/2025 11:30 |
 Genoa2.00 |
X 3.40 |
Parma  3.60 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Genoa x Parma:
🔮 Genoa wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Genoa, you can win up to $1000.00!
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Some important points for the tip for Genoa x Parma: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. |
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Analysis from Genoa x Parma for the Italy Serie A – 12 of January
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🏟️ Genoa X Parma – Italy Serie A |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Genoa x Parma right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1244516 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Genoa x Parma
Should you bet on Genoa?
🔵 Genoa: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 60.42%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 600 times – this would give you a profit of $600.00
- And would have lost other 400 times – with a loss of -$400.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$200.00.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.26% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 220 times – profiting $528.00;
- And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$252.00.
Is it worth betting on Parma?
🔴 Parma: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 17.32% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 170 times – this would give you a profit of $442.00
- And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$388.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Genoa x Parma
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Genoa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Genoa x Parma
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Genoa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Genoa.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Genoa x Parma
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
